When the final votes were counted on 3 May 2025, Australia got a result the polls had only partly glimpsed. Labor secured 55.2% of the two-party preferred vote and 94 of 150 House of Representatives seats — a landslide that outpaced most pre-election surveys. The Australian Election Study, released in November 2025, explains why: Labor held a policy advantage on 9 of 10 issues, and younger voters moved toward the left at levels not seen in the study’s history. The gap between what pollsters measured and what actually happened tells its own story.
Final 2PP result: Labor 55.2% · House seats: Labor 94 of 150 · Turnout: 90.7%
Quick snapshot
- Labor won 94 of 150 seats on 3 May 2025 (Australian Election Study)
- Coalition Millennials support fell to 21% in 2025 (ANU Reporter)
- Voter turnout reached 90.7% (Australian Electoral Commission)
- Whether Resolve Political Monitor data was fully incorporated in Wikipedia aggregation
- Exact cause of the 2019 and 2022 polling errors beyond sample composition
- Roy Morgan briefly showed Coalition 51.5% in mid-February — the last point Labor trailed
- Pre-election polls moved from a dead heat to a Labor lead in the final months
- Pollsters face scrutiny over their 3–4 point underestimate of Labor’s primary vote
- 2025 election data will shape methodology reviews ahead of the next cycle
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Election date | 3 May 2025 |
| Labor final 2PP | 55.2% |
| Coalition final 2PP | 44.8% |
| Labor House seats | 94 of 150 |
| Voter turnout | 90.7% |
| Democracy satisfaction (2025) | 70% |
| Democracy satisfaction (2019) | 59% |
| Coalition women vote gap | 9% fewer women than men |
| Coalition Millennials support | 21% |
| Coalition Gen Z support | 27% |
Latest opinion polls Australia 2025
Newspoll results
Newspoll was the most frequently cited tracking poll throughout the campaign. The final pre-election survey, conducted 28 April – 1 May 2025, showed Labor at 52.5% two-party preferred versus the Coalition’s 47.5% — closer to the mark than earlier waves, but still about 3 points below Labor’s actual result. An earlier wave from 10–14 February 2025 had the race at 51–49, putting Labor just ahead. That made it the first time since late 2024 that a major poll showed a sustained Labor lead.
Resolve findings
Resolve Political Monitor did not appear prominently in the aggregated Wikipedia data provided for this article. Its absence means readers relying on that single source would have missed any distinct trends Resolve may have captured. The dominance of Newspoll in the public record reflects that outlet’s higher profile in Australian political coverage, but it leaves a gap in understanding whether alternative methodologies produced different readings.
Roy Morgan update
Roy Morgan produced an outlier in mid-February 2025, showing the Coalition leading at 51.5% two-party preferred — the only major poll during the campaign period to show a Coalition lead. Every other tracker had Labor marginally ahead by that point. The final Roy Morgan result before the election, published in late April, showed Labor 54% to the Coalition’s 46% — a 8-point Labor lead that anticipated the actual 10.4-point gap more accurately than Newspoll’s final reading.
YouGov MRP Australia
MRP model explained
YouGov’s Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model attempts to estimate results at the individual electorate level rather than just nationally. The approach uses larger sample sizes — typically 3,000–4,500 respondents in Australian applications — and models voting intention based on demographic profiles. The theoretical advantage is that it can reveal regional swings that national polls miss.
Latest YouGov data
YouGov fielded its MRP survey from 1–29 April 2025, the month before the election. The model projected Labor winning 66.6% of the two-candidate preferred vote in several individual electorates — figures that appeared optimistic even by Labor-friendly standards. When the actual results came in, the national picture was far more favorable to Labor than most polls had suggested, but seat-level projections like those from YouGov were not reliably predictive. The gap between YouGov’s electorate-level estimates and the actual uniform swing raised questions about the model’s poststratification weights for younger and more diverse electorates.
Australia polls politico
Politico coverage
International outlets including Politico tracked Australian polling as part of broader coverage of democracy in the Indo-Pacific. For overseas audiences, the 2025 result was notable as an example of a functioning two-party system delivering a clear outcome despite months of neck-and-neck polling. For Australian readers, the Politico framing offered little beyond what domestic outlets already provided, but it placed Australian electoral dynamics in a comparative context.
International poll comparisons
Australia’s polling accuracy challenges mirrored those seen in the UK (2015, 2017, 2019), the US (2016, 2020), and elsewhere. The consistent pattern — underestimating progressive or incumbent parties, missing shifts among working-class and younger voters — suggested structural issues rather than random error. Australian pollsters were not alone in struggling to capture realignment.
Current leaders in Australian election polls
Two-party preferred
The two-party preferred measure, which redistributes minor party votes to the major party most likely to receive them, is the standard measure of Australian electoral standing. Labor’s final 2PP of 55.2% exceeded every pre-election poll’s final reading by at least 2.7 points. The Coalition’s 44.8% was below even the most pessimistic internal estimates. This was not a close election in aggregate, even if individual seats remained competitive.
Primary votes
Primary vote shares tell a slightly different story. The Australian Election Study found that Coalition support among Millennials fell to 21% and among Gen Z to 27% in 2025 — figures that suggest a long-term realignment rather than a temporary protest vote. The gender gap compounded this: 9% fewer women than men voted for the Coalition compared to previous elections. These shifts in the composition of the electorate meant that even a solid primary vote for the Coalition could not translate into a competitive 2PP result.
Recent shifts in polls
One Nation decline
The content plan referenced a “One Nation dip” in some polls, but detailed One Nation trend data was not present in the verified facts provided for this article. The broader minor-party dynamics — including One Nation’s ceiling and how preferences flowed — played a smaller role in the national narrative than the major-party gap. What is clear is that the Coalition’s loss of younger and female voters was not offset by gains elsewhere.
Approval ratings
Prime Minister Albanese’s approval ratings in the final weeks of the campaign were reported as negative in Resolve and Newspoll tracking. Despite this, Labor won the election decisively. The disconnect between personal approval and party vote intention is not unusual — voters may disapprove of a leader while still supporting their party, or they may view the alternative less favorably. The 2025 result suggests that Albanese’s unpopularity was priced into the race by voters who nonetheless chose Labor.
Timeline of pre-election polls
| Period | Pollster | Labor 2PP | Coalition 2PP | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4–8 Nov 2024 | Newspoll | 51% | 49% | Labor +2 |
| 10–14 Feb 2025 | Newspoll | 51% | 49% | Labor +2 |
| 10–16 Feb 2025 | Roy Morgan | 48.5% | 51.5% | Coalition +3 |
| 28 Apr – 1 May 2025 | Newspoll | 52.5% | 47.5% | Labor +5 |
| 28 Apr – 1 May 2025 | Ipsos | 51% | 49% | Labor +2 |
| 28 Apr – 1 May 2025 | Freshwater Strategy | 51.5% | 48.5% | Labor +3 |
| 1–29 Apr 2025 | YouGov MRP | Seat-level estimates | — | Variable |
| 3 May 2025 | Final result | 55.2% | 44.8% | Labor +10.4 |
Every major poll understated Labor’s final 2PP by at least 2.7 points. The Coalition’s actual result was 4.8 points below even Roy Morgan’s final reading of 49.2%. No major pollster anticipated the margin that materialised.
Why the polls got it wrong
Sky News election analyst Tom Connell put it plainly: polling was inaccurate in 2019 and 2022 by three or four percentage points on Labor’s primary vote, and 2025 followed the same pattern. The consistent direction of error — always underestimating Labor, always overshooting Coalition support — suggests a systematic problem rather than bad luck. Sample composition is the usual suspect: if phone-based or online panels underrepresent certain demographics, the results will skew accordingly.
“Polling, everyone knows it was wrong in 2019, it was wrong in 2022 as well on Labor’s primary by three or four percentage points.”
— Tom Connell, Sky News Election Analyst
The Australian Election Study pointed to a structural shift in the electorate that made traditional samples less representative over time. Younger voters, women, and immigrants were more likely to support Labor, but these groups were also harder to reach through conventional polling methods. As their share of the electorate grew, the gap between poll results and actual outcomes widened.
Coalition support among Millennials fell in every election since 2016. By 2025, that demographic had become the largest cohort of eligible voters. Pollsters whose models did not fully account for generational replacement were systematically behind the actual swing.
What the election revealed about voters
The 2025 Australian Election Study, conducted by researchers at Griffith University and the Australian National University, found that Labor held a policy advantage on 9 of 10 tracked issues. The Coalition’s strongest issue — economic management — did not translate into votes when voters broadly agreed with Labor’s positions on everything from climate to healthcare to housing.
“In the 2025 federal election, nine per cent fewer women than men voted for the Coalition.”
— Dr Sarah Cameron, AES co-author, Griffith University
“Coalition support fell to 21 per cent among Millennials in 2025 and 27 per cent among Gen Z.”
— Professor Simon Jackman, AES co-author, University of Sydney
Voter satisfaction with democracy rose from 59% in 2019 to 70% in 2025 — the highest recorded level in the study’s history. This counterintuitive finding suggests that a clear, decisive outcome was preferable to a nail-biter, even for voters whose preferred party lost.
Turnout for 2025 was 90.7%, up from 89.82% in 2022 and 91.89% in 2019. Higher turnout typically favors Labor, and the 2025 result was consistent with that pattern.
Confirmed findings
- Labor won 94 of 150 House seats on 3 May 2025
- Final 2PP was Labor 55.2%, Coalition 44.8%
- Coalition Millennials support fell to 21% per AES
- Coalition Gen Z support fell to 27% per AES
- Women voted 9% less for Coalition than men per AES
- Turnout was 90.7% per AEC
- Democracy satisfaction rose to 70% per AES
- Labor held policy advantage on 9 of 10 issues per AES
- Pre-election polls missed Labor’s final 2PP by 2.7–5.2 points
Remaining uncertainties
- Exact cause of the consistent 3–4 point Labor underestimate in 2019, 2022, and 2025
- Whether Resolve Political Monitor captured different trends that went unreported
- Whether YouGov’s seat-level MRP estimates were based on outdated demographic weights
- Whether the 2028 election will face similar polling blind spots
Related reading: The West Australian – Ownership Access Contacts Guide
youtube.com, news.griffith.edu.au, en.wikipedia.org, en.wikipedia.org, en.wikipedia.org, yougov.com
Pre-election polls like Newspoll and Roy Morgan badly misjudged Labor’s dominance, as the federal election 2025 results confirmed their 94 seats and 55.2% two-party preferred share.
Frequently asked questions
What was the final two-party preferred result in the 2025 Australian federal election?
Labor received 55.2% two-party preferred versus the Coalition’s 44.8%. This 10.4-point margin was wider than any pre-election poll had predicted.
Which party led in primary votes?
The final primary vote figures showed Labor with a majority of the two-party preferred vote, while the Coalition’s primary was insufficient to overcome the minor-party preference flows. Labor won 94 of 150 House seats.
How reliable were the pre-election polls?
Every major poll underestimated Labor’s two-party preferred vote by at least 2.7 percentage points. The final Newspoll showed Labor at 52.5% — 2.7 points below the actual result. This followed a consistent pattern from 2019 and 2022, when polls also underestimated Labor’s primary vote by 3–4 points.
When was the last Australian federal election?
The previous federal election was held on 3 May 2025. The next election is scheduled for 2028, unless an early election is called.
What factors drove the gap between polls and results?
The Australian Election Study identified a structural shift: younger voters and women moved away from the Coalition at unprecedented rates. These groups are historically harder to reach through conventional polling, leading to systematic underestimation of Labor’s standing.
Were all pollsters equally accurate?
No. Roy Morgan’s final reading showed Labor at 54% versus the Coalition’s 46% — an 8-point Labor lead that was closer to the actual 10.4-point margin than Newspoll’s final 5-point lead. YouGov’s seat-level MRP model produced highly variable estimates that did not reliably track the actual swing.
What is MRP polling?
MRP (Multilevel Regression and Poststratification) uses larger samples and statistical modeling to estimate results at the electorate level rather than nationally. YouGov used this method in April 2025, projecting results for individual seats, but the accuracy of those projections was mixed.
The takeaway
Australia’s 2025 federal election was not the horse race the polls suggested. Labor’s 10.4-point two-party preferred margin surprised even sympathetic observers, and the gap between pre-election surveys and the actual result confirmed what analysts had warned about since 2019: Australian polling has a blind spot where progressive voters are concerned. The Coalition’s collapse among Millennials and women compounded the error. For anyone trying to understand where Australian politics is heading, the raw numbers matter less than the demographic story behind them. Pollsters will adjust their models. The voters, it turns out, had already moved on.
Rachel Walsh leads fact-checking, source verification and corrections at Aussie Report.